Journal of Energy Transition

Preface

Bat-Erdene Bayar — 2023-12-28

Preface of Journal of Energy Transition

Change in Electric Power Consumption in Mongolia in 2020 and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Tsolmon Myagmarjav — 2023-12-28

This paper deals with the change in electric power (EP) consumption in Mongolia in 2020 based on data on the maximum and minimum EP consumption a day, provided by NPTG. The changes in EP consumption in Mongolia in detail as weekly or seasonal changes as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have not been clear, even though annual EP consumption was provided from the reports of the World Bank, IEA, and other international institutes as statistical data. Differences in the maximum average hourly and the minimum EP consumption in a day was 277 MWh (30.2%) and in the maximum and minimum daily EP consumption in 2020, which appeared in winter and summer, respectively, was 933 MWh (71.3%). Also, a 104-MWh (14.8%) drop was confirmed on special days like Naadam. To discuss the impact of COVID-19, the values of 2017 were used as a criterion for a year absent of a pandemic, and the stringency index, an indicator used to quantify the severity and stringency of government policies and measures, was introduced, and compared with the monthly EP consumption in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic decreased the EP consumption of 40 MWh (2 to 6%) except in December due to the free-electricity policy. The EP consumption showed the dependency of the stringency index, particularly a clear drop over 50 of the index values. These new findings of EP consumption properties are expected to apply EP demand forecasting and make design plans for future EP systems in Mongolia.

Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis in Mongolia: A LEAP Model Application

Tsolmon Namkhainyam — 2023-12-29

The energy system of Mongolia faces two challenges to meet domestic energy demand and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Electricity and heat in Mongolia are generated mainly by coal-fired combined heat and power plants. Despite a low share of global greenhouse gas emissions, Mongolia is experiencing an increase in greenhouse gas emissions per capita. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions scenario of the energy system. The analysis employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model the energy generation mix and scenarios up to 2050. The analysis utilizes 2018 as the base year and builds on a set of forty-nine mitigation measures identified by the Government of Mongolia. Implementation of these measures is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 21.5 million tonnes of CO₂-eq by 2030 and 36.5 million tonnes of CO₂-eq by 2050 compared to the baseline.

Machine Learning Application for Renewable Energy Forecasting

Tuvshin Osgonbaatar — 2023-12-29

Renewable energy is a clean source known as green energy. Its benefits are enough established. However, its effective use and increasing its share have become a major challenge for system operators. Due to its direct dependence on environmental and meteorological factors, there are often uncertainties and unexpected consequences for integrated energy system planning. Thus, the prediction of the production of renewable sources is a very relevant issue. This paper considers the application of ensemble machine learning models for renewable energy forecasting. As input data for the machine learning modem, historical data on power generation was used for the 2019–2021 period of renewable energy including meteorological data from the power plants operating in the central power system of Mongolia. The ensemble machine learning model allows us to determine the non-linear and non-stationary dependence of the time series and can be implemented in the task of forecasting the daily generation schedule. The proposed model creates a day-ahead forecast of the hourly generation curve of the photo-voltaic power plants under consideration with a normalized absolute percentage error of 6.5 – 8.4%, and for wind farms, 12.3-13.3%. Increasing the accuracy of renewable energy forecasting can positively affect the operation and planning of the central power system of Mongolia.

Potential Study of Using Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Power Supply of Tourism Camp in Mongolia

Nomuulin Batjargal — 2023-12-29

Due to the increase in the number of tourists coming from abroad, tourism camps have become interested in offering distinctive experiences, such as being close to nature and eco-friendly. Therefore, utilizing a hybrid renewable energy system for power supply becomes an attractive, nature-friendly, and reliable option for users located in remote areas disconnected from the central network. This article evaluates the electricity demand and associated costs for tourist camps using three different types of hybrid systems consisting of solar photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, diesel generators, battery storage, and converters. PV/wind systems will cost twice as much as PV/wind/battery systems. Additionally, they are not environmentally suitable due to the large number of batteries. PV/wind/battery systems, comprising a 3 kW capacity PV, a 5 kW capacity wind turbine, and batteries, could offer greater flexibility for tourist camps. This system is estimated to generate 19,303 kWh/year of electricity while not emitting greenhouse gases, despite being more expensive than a PV/wind/diesel hybrid system. The HOMER Pro software is used in this paper for optimization and techno-economic analysis.

Geo-energy and Activities, Energy Policy of the Mongolia: Problems, Challenges, and Solutions

Myagmarsuren Dashzevge — 2023-12-29

This article summarizes research reports on the foundations of geo-energy study theory, dynamic change and transition in international relations or geopolitical fields, geo-economics fragmentation, and the new distribution of powers in the region. Based on the situation analysis, I tried to explore the dangers and risks facing the national security of the country. Moreover, policy analysis was conducted on energy strategy policy that stated mid and long-term development concepts of the country. One can distinguish the Mongolian energy strategy into two objectives:

To establish and maintain energy security;
To keep and grow in the role of an energy-market player.

According to geo-energy theory, the Mongolian energy policy can be divided into three separate fields, such as 1) Steps according to the changes and risks associated with world order; 2) Steps according to the third-neighbor policy; and 3) Steps according to cooperation with two neighbors. The dynamics of the change in the world energy sector have naturally dragged Mongolia into its competitive field as a country that has tremendous resources of clean energy and critical minerals. Although Mongolia has the potential to be a big player in the field, it has to play along with super players in the field and consider their interests and arrangements. To attract foreign investment and high technology, Mongolia should employ an attractive policy in the long term. It requires the country to be active in the world energy field and to calculate future energy trends, dynamics, and arrangements correctly.